Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.015833 0.017928 0.020200 0.022846 0.025845 0.029140 0.033037
2025-08-10 0.012395 0.015249 0.018609 0.022861 0.028104 0.034365 0.042421
2025-08-17 0.010294 0.013401 0.017273 0.022457 0.029229 0.037793 0.049474
2025-08-24 0.009078 0.012379 0.016685 0.022726 0.031002 0.041973 0.057674
2025-08-31 0.008003 0.011358 0.015914 0.022566 0.032062 0.045176 0.064746
2025-09-07 0.007358 0.010823 0.015701 0.023085 0.034024 0.049697 0.073986
2025-09-14 0.006468 0.009828 0.014712 0.022351 0.034052 0.051388 0.079188
2025-09-21 0.005839 0.009142 0.014089 0.022066 0.034670 0.053931 0.085819
2025-09-28 0.005209 0.008386 0.013278 0.021391 0.034589 0.055349 0.090753
2025-10-05 0.004998 0.008264 0.013430 0.022233 0.036956 0.060769 0.102560
2025-10-12 0.004744 0.008044 0.013397 0.022756 0.038828 0.065516 0.113640
2025-10-19 0.004528 0.007864 0.013409 0.023342 0.040835 0.070624 0.125754
2025-10-26 0.004183 0.007440 0.012983 0.023158 0.041531 0.073611 0.134535
2025-11-02 0.003898 0.007096 0.012667 0.023139 0.042515 0.077183 0.144710
2025-11-09 0.003583 0.006669 0.012165 0.022731 0.042742 0.079394 0.152532
2025-11-16 0.003398 0.006463 0.012041 0.023004 0.044245 0.084049 0.165377
2025-11-23 0.003171 0.006157 0.011705 0.022842 0.044897 0.087140 0.175435
2025-11-30 0.003052 0.006048 0.011727 0.023367 0.046920 0.093017 0.191546
2025-12-07 0.002790 0.005635 0.011133 0.022623 0.046350 0.093739 0.197192
2025-12-14 0.002604 0.005358 0.010781 0.022335 0.046669 0.096250 0.206756
2025-12-21 0.002392 0.005010 0.010259 0.021652 0.046109 0.096905 0.212402
2025-12-28 0.002353 0.005019 0.010464 0.022504 0.048859 0.104679 0.234214
2026-01-04 0.002283 0.004958 0.010516 0.023034 0.050955 0.111225 0.253875